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06.2009 - "Problemy socjo-demograficzne w Polsce i na świecie." Drukuj Email
czerwiec 2009, nr 34/12 online
 
„Coraz większą wagę będzie przywiązywać się do potrzeb ludzi w podeszłym wieku,
zmniejszy się natomiast proporcjonalnie zainteresowanie sprawami młodych”
(A. Toffler: Szok przyszłości,1984)

PROBLEMY SOCJO-DEMOGRAFICZNE
 
W POLSCE I NA ŚWIECIE
 
 
Wstęp
 
   Zachodzące przemiany demograficzne są fenomenem w historii. Według Departamentu Spraw Gospodarczych i Społecznych ONZ do 2050 roku światowa populacja wzrośnie z aktualnego poziomu 6,7 miliarda do 9,2 miliarda. Tempo starzenia się społeczeństw jest bardzo szybkie -  liczba osób w wieku powyżej 60 lat w 2006 roku wynosiła 688 milionów, w 2020 roku  będzie liczyć około miliarda.
   WHO promuje ideę aktywnego starzenia się, podkreśla konieczność zachowania praw człowieka starego do godności i niezależności, uczestniczenia w życiu społecznym, opieki i samowystarczalności. Komitet Regionów w sprawie „Demograficzna przyszłość Europy” zaleca prowadzenie zróżnicowanych analiz przemian demograficznych, akcentując, że zjawisk tych nie należy postrzegać negatywnie,  a pojawiające się wyzwania  stać się mogą szansą, dającą społeczeństwu nowe możliwości i kierunki rozwoju. Konieczne jest podejmowanie działań  w skali zarówno międzynarodowej, jak i narodowej, regionalnej czy lokalnej. Problemy związane ze starzeniem się społeczeństw muszą stać się priorytetem polityki społecznej również naszego kraju.
   Demografowie odróżniają projekcje demograficzne i prognozy  demograficzne. Projekcje ukazują przebieg przyszłych procesów w różnych wariantach. Prognoza jest projekcją demograficzną uznaną za najbardziej prawdopodobną.
  Poniższe opracowanie ma na celu przedstawienie stanu, struktury i dynamiki niektórych prognozowanych  zmian demograficznych, obejmujących okres do roku 2050.
 
Starość i starzenie się społeczeństw – rewolucja demograficzna
 
   Starzenie się organizmu definiowane jest zwykle jako zespół postępujących w czasie zmian, anatomicznych i fizjologicznych, zmniejszających rezerwę fizjologiczną i ograniczających zdolności funkcjonalne organizmu. Zachodzące zmiany są etapami naturalnych przemian ustrojowych. Ostatni etap – starość  oznacza zaawansowanie procesów starzenia w  stopniu  istotnie ograniczającym procesy biologiczne i adaptacyjne.
   Definicje, kryteria, wskaźniki, czy progi określające i charakteryzujące starzenie się, starość i jej poszczególne etapy są bardzo różne. Najpowszechniej uwzględniane są podziały wyznaczane przez granice: chronologiczną (równoznaczną z wiekiem kalendarzowym), biologiczną (wiek sprawnościowy), ekonomiczną (wiek zaprzestania pracy produkcyjnej) i społeczną (odnoszącą się do miejsca jednostki w społeczeństwie).
   WHO za początek starości przyjmuje umownie 60 rok życia; wyróżniane są okresy: wieku przedstarczego (45-59), starości wczesnej (60-74), starości późnej (75-89) i starości bardzo późnej (90 lat i powyżej, inaczej długowieczność, wiek sędziwy).
   W Polsce jako kryterium wkroczenia w okres starości demograficznej  przyjmowany jest zwykle wiek nabywania uprawnień emerytalnych (60 lat kobiety/65 lat mężczyźni).
   Starzenie się populacji jest zmianą jej struktury, zmierzającą do zwiększenia udziału w populacji ludności w  wieku starszym (powyżej 60 lat lub 65 lat). Jest  zjawiskiem złożonym i długofalowym, zależnym od procesów rozrodczości, umieralności i migracji. Do oceny stopnia  zaawansowania procesu starzenia się społeczeństw najczęściej stosowane są skale starości demograficznej  według  ONZ  oraz według skali demografa polskiego- Edwarda Rosseta. (tabele 1, 2)

Tabela 1. Skala starości demograficznej wg ONZ 
 
 ^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
Tabela  2. Skala starości demograficznej wg E. Rosseta

 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
 
Struktura wieku ludności
 
   W roku 1950 na świecie żyło 200 milionów osób w wieku 60 i więcej lat,  w 1975 roku - 350 milionów, w 2000 roku - 605 milionów, a w 2006 roku liczba osób w tym wieku wzrosła do 688 milionów. Prognozy demograficzne przewidują, że w roku 2020 grupa ta będzie liczyć około miliarda, a w roku 2025 zwiększy się do 1,2 miliarda.
   Zmiany demograficzne zachodzą  w  poszczególnych państwach z różną  szybkością, zależną w istotny sposób od stopnia rozwoju kraju. Proces zmian w krajach rozwijających się zachodzi dużo szybciej niż w krajach rozwiniętych (tabele 3 i 4 ).
   W krajach rozwiniętych największe konsekwencje społeczne spowodowane są wzrastającym udziałem osób starszych w społeczeństwie. W krajach rozwijających się najistotniejsze jest tempo zachodzących przemian (brak infrastruktury zabezpieczającej potrzeby osób starszych).
 
 Tabela 3. Struktura wieku ludności w krajach o różnym poziomie rozwoju
             gospodarczego w latach 2005*  i  2050 ** [%]
 
 ^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
Źródło: opr. na podstawie United Nations Programme on Ageing
*- stan rzeczywisty
** - prognoza
 
Tabela  4. Struktura wieku ludności na poszczególnych kontynentach
      w latach 2005* i  2050 ** [%]

 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
Źródło: opr. na podstawie United Nations Programme on Ageing
*- stan rzeczywisty
** - prognoza
 
   Społeczeństwo Polski oraz większości krajów w Europie wkroczyło w fazę starości demograficznej. Do krajów o najwyższym odsetku osób starszych należą Włochy (19,3), Grecja (18,5), Szwecja (17,3 ), najmniej osób starszych żyje w  Irlandii (11,2), Słowacji (11,8), Czarnogórze (12,6) (tabela 5). Odsetek osób w wieku 65 lat  wynosi w Polsce 13,3%.

Tabela 5. Liczba ludności w wieku lat 65 i więcej
w niektórych krajach europejskich
 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
Źródło: Rocznik demograficzny 2008 GUS

   Zgodnie ze skalą starości demograficznej przyjętą przez ONZ -  Indie,  Meksyk i Brazylię można zaliczyć do krajów o populacji określanej mianem dojrzała (udział w społeczeństwie osób w wieku powyżej 65 lat <7% ). Dane zamieszczono w tabeli 6.
 
Tabela  6. Liczba ludności w wieku lat 65 i więcej w niektórych pozostałych krajach
 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć

Źródło: Rocznik demograficzny 2008 GUS

Długość życia
 
   Po raz pierwszy w historii, w roku 2006 kobiety żyły dłużej niż mężczyźni we wszystkich krajach świata, także w krajach zaliczanych do słabo rozwiniętych. Według danych WHO z czerwca 2008,  na świecie najkrócej żyją mieszkańcy Afryki (mężczyźni -39 lat w Sierra Leone, 42 lata w Zambii i Nigerze,  kobiety - odpowiednio 42 i 43 lata). Spośród krajów leżących poza Europą mężczyźni osiągają wiek 79 lat  w Japonii i Australii. Najdłużej, 86 lat, żyją Japonki.
   W Europie najkrócej żyją Rosjanie (mężczyźni - 59 lat, kobiety - 72,4 lata). Przeciętne trwanie życia w wybranych krajach Europy przedstawiono w tabeli 7.
 
Tabela  7. Przeciętne trwanie życia w niektórych krajach Europy
^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
Źródło: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu. ; GUS: Trwanie życia w 2007 roku.
 
   Populacja osób starszych starzeje się też w swoim obrębie, liczba osób w wieku 80 i więcej lat  (oldest old) stanowi obecnie 13% grupy osób w wieku powyżej  65 roku życia, w roku 2050 stanowić już będzie 20% tej grupy. W ostatnich dekadach w państwach rozwiniętych nastąpił szybki wzrost liczby stulatków. Badacze przewidują „eksplozję stulatków” w latach 2050-2060 (status stulatków uzyskają pokolenia urodzone po II wojnie światowej, tzw. baby-boom). Według prognoz liczba stulatków wzrośnie 14-krotnie - do roku 2050 będzie ich ponad 3,7 miliona. Wzrostowi udziału ludzi starych w populacji towarzyszyć będzie spadek udziału dzieci, wskutek czego mediana wzrośnie średnio o blisko dziesięć lat  (tabela 8).
 
Tabela 8. Mediana wieku ludności świata w latach 1950, 2005, 2050
 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
 * -prognoza
Źródło: oprac. na podstawie United Nations Programme on Ageing

Działania ONZ w kwestii starzenia się społeczeństw
 
   Zagadnienia związane z powstałą sytuacją ludzi starszych podjęto na Pierwszym Światowym Zgromadzeniu na temat Starzenia się Społeczeństw we Wiedniu w 1982 roku. Wiele państw nie miało jeszcze opracowanych programów uwzględniających problemy demograficzne. Prognozowany wzrost ludności w wieku powyżej 60 lat o 240%  na przestrzeni lat 1975-2025 określono mianem demograficznej rewolucji. Postulaty zapewnienia starszym ludziom odpowiedniego poziomu życia i uczestnictwa w życiu społecznym zawarte zostały w Międzynarodowym Planie Działania w Kwestii Starzenia się Społeczeństw. Zwrócono uwagę na specyficzne dla starszych osób problemy  skupione przede wszystkim w takich dziedzinach jak: zdrowie, rodzina, mieszkanie i środowisko, żywienie, zabezpieczenie dochodów, edukacja i zatrudnienie. W 1991 roku Zgromadzenie Ogólne NZ przyjęło Zasady Działania na Rzecz Osób Starszych. Zbiór obejmował zasady podporządkowane pięciu wartościom - niezależności, godności, osobistemu rozwojowi, uczestnictwu w życiu i zapewnieniu opieki ludziom starszym. Drugie Światowe Zgromadzenie na temat Starzenia się Społeczeństw odbyło się w 2002 roku w Madrycie. Główne hasło zgromadzenia brzmiało: „Społeczeństwo dla wszystkich grup wieku”. Zaprezentowano Ramową Politykę dotyczącą Aktywnego Starzenia się, przyjęte zostały dokumenty: Deklaracja Polityczna i Międzynarodowy Plan Działania dotyczący Aktywnego Starzenia się. Określenie „aktywny” odnosi się do ciągłego udziału w życiu społecznym, ekonomicznym, duchowym, czy sprawach publicznych.  Określenie „zdrowie” oznacza, zgodnie z definicją WHO, psychiczny, fizyczny i społeczny dobrostan. Aktywne starzenie odnosi się więc do zdrowia psychicznego, aktywności fizycznej i zabezpieczenia społecznego.

Europa
 
   Zgodnie z ogólnie przyjętymi wskaźnikami Europa starzeje się. Co siódma osoba jest w wieku powyżej 65 roku życia, a liczba osób w wieku 0-19 lat wyraźnie się zmniejsza. Następuje spadek dzietności i wydłużanie trwania życia. Najwięcej ludzi starych żyje we Włoszech i Grecji.
   W październiku 2006 roku Komisja Wspólnot Europejskich zaprezentowała dokument: „Demograficzna przyszłość Europy – przekształcić wyzwania w nowe możliwości”. Była to kontynuacja komunikatu Komisji skierowanego do Rady Europejskiej pt.:„Europejskie wartości w zglobalizowanym świecie” i Zielonej Księgi Komisji pt.: „Wobec zmian demograficznych: nowa solidarność między pokoleniami”. Dokument analizuje sposoby sprostania wyzwaniom demograficznym i wskazuje kierunki działań podejmowanych na szczeblach lokalnych, regionalnych, krajowych i europejskich.
   Starzenie się ludności UE wynika przede wszystkim z czterech tendencji demograficznych:
•    spadku średniej liczby dzieci przypadających na jedną kobietę (w 2005 roku współczynnik dzietności ogólnej (total fertility)  w UE-25 wynosił średnio 1,5, podczas gdy wartość przyjęta jako wskaźnik  odnowy pokoleń wynosi co najmniej 2,1);
•    osiągania wieku emerytalnego przez pokolenia wyżu powojennego, tzw. efekt  „baby boom”;
•    przedłużania oczekiwanej długości życia (do roku 2050 o co najmniej 5 lat), rosnącego udziału ludzi sędziwych w społeczeństwie;
•    częściowego zrównoważenia zmian struktury społecznej przez napływ imigrantów krajów trzecich.
   W wyniku opisanych tendencji liczba ludności UE będzie stopniowo zmniejszać się, przy czym ludność w wieku 15-64 lat zmniejszy się do roku 2050 o 48 milionów, co będzie skutkować wzrostem współczynnika zależności z 24,5% w roku 2004  do 52,8% w roku 2050  (współczynnik zależności rozumiany jako stosunek liczby osób w wieku 65 lat i więcej do liczby osób w wieku 15-64). Według  Eurostat współczynnik  zależności wynosił w Polsce w 2004 roku 18,6%, a  w roku 2050  sięgać będzie 51%.
   Zmiany demograficzne i będące ich efektem zmiany społeczno-gospodarcze, są źródłem szeregu nowych problemów – zarówno w sferze ekonomicznej, jak i medycznej, czy etycznej.
   Zgodnie z ustaleniami Komisji Europejskiej polityki - wspólnotowa i krajowe - muszą dostosować się do wyzwań demograficznych. Kierunki polityki określone przez dokument „Demograficzna przyszłość Europy – przekształcić wyzwania w nowe możliwości” skupiają się na:
•    promowaniu Europy sprzyjającej odnowie pokoleń (polityka rodzinna);
•    Europie doceniającej znaczenie zatrudnienia- dłuższe aktywne życie o wysokiej jakości (dłuższa oczekiwana długość zycia w dobrym zdrowiu może oznaczać dłuższą aktywność zawodową; promowanie aktywnego starzenia się, dostęp do uczenia się przez całe życie);
•    wzroście produktywności i konkurencyjności Europy (zachęcenie europejskich podmiotów gospodarczych  do uwzględniania potrzeb starzejących się społeczeństw, powstanie nowego rynku dóbr i usług, także dostępu do nowych technologii);
•    opracowaniu polityki imigracyjnej (wspólna polityka w dziedzinie legalnej migracji z krajów trzecich, wewnętrzna mobilność obywateli wspólnotowych – kontynuacja przechodzenia do pełnej swobody przemieszczania się w ramach UE  w 2014 roku);
•    zapewnieniu stabilności finansów publicznych (reforma emerytur, rozwój prywatnych systemów oszczędzania, systemy kapitalizacji, edukacja w dziedzinie finansów).
   Europejski Komitet Regionów podkreśla potrzebę analizy zmian demograficznych na poziomie regionów, miast i gmin. Dostrzega potencjał ludzi starych i możliwość wykorzystania ich wiedzy przy budowie europejskiego społeczeństwa.
   Postępy czynione w realizacji nakreślonych działań mają być oceniane podczas organizowanych co dwa lata spotkań. Drugie Europejskie Forum Demograficzne odbyło się 24-25 listopada 2008 roku. Obszerny raport z obrad zamieszczony jest na stronach internetowych Komisji Europejskiej. Według raportu problem starzenia się społeczeństwa UE można starać się  rozwiązać poprzez pomoc starszym ludziom w zachowaniu aktywności i kontynuacji pracy. Obserwowane jest odwrócenie  tendencji  do wczesnego przechodzenia na emeryturę, obecnie jeden na dwóch Europejczyków chciałby pracować po osiągnięciu wieku emerytalnego.
   Opieka oferowana przez obecny system ochrony zdrowia często nie odpowiada  nowym potrzebom. Konieczne jest zwiększenie wykorzystania nowych technologii (np. telemedycyna, indywidualne systemy zdrowia dostępne dla ludzi starszych). Istotna jest intensyfikacja działań zapobiegawczych umożliwiających promocję sposobu życia i warunków sprzyjających dobremu zdrowiu, a więc m.in.: programy zdrowotne, walka z otyłością, paleniem tytoniu, alkoholizmem.

Polska

   Narodowy Program Zdrowia na lata 2007-2015 przedstawia sytuację zdrowotną społeczeństwa polskiego oraz zadania stojące przed administracją rządową, samorządową i organizacjami pozarządowymi. W kraju, mimo powszechności ochrony zdrowia, identyfikowanych jest wiele problemów związanych z zapewnieniem właściwej opieki osobom starszym. W dużej mierze spowodowane jest to rozproszeniem i brakiem koordynacji opieki zdrowotnej prowadzonej przez różnych świadczeniodawców. 
   Do największych problemów zdrowotnych w grupie osób starszych należą:
•    wielkie zespoły geriatryczne (zaburzenia lokomocji i upadki, zaburzenia wzroku i słuchu, depresja, otępienie, nietrzymanie moczu i stolca, niedożywienie); delirium (splątanie, majaczenie);
•    jatrogenny zespół geriatryczny (zespoły objawów chorobowych, wynikających z przyjmowanych leków, spowodowane m.in. zmianą farmakokinetyki w wieku starszym, polipragmazją, zjawiskiem noncompliance);
•    występujące najczęściej jednostki chorobowe (choroba zwyrodnieniowa stawów, nadciśnienie tętnicze, udary mózgu, cukrzyca, choroba niedokrwienna serca, przewlekła obturacyjna choroba płuc, zaparcia, osteoporoza).
Analiza stanu zdrowia osób starszych  powinna być prowadzona w sposób ciągły, w oparciu o wystandaryzowane skale oceny geriatrycznej. W celu zabezpieczenia odpowiedniej jakości systemu świadczeń z zakresu profilaktyki i leczenia konieczne jest określenie spodziewanej w przyszłości liczby osób starszych, a wśród nich  pacjentów poradni, oddziałów szpitalnych,  ośrodków paliatywnych.
   W Polsce występuje duża różnica w stanie zdrowia i trwaniu życia w zależności od  województwa. W 2007 roku  mężczyźni najdłużej żyli w województwie podkarpackim – blisko 73 lata, najkrócej w łódzkim – 68,7 lat. Kobiety najkrócej żyły w województwie łódzkim - 78,7 lat; w województwach: podkarpackim, małopolskim, mazowieckim, lubelskim, podlaskim i świętokrzyskim żyły ponad 80 lat.
   W ciągu najbliższych lat liczba ludności Polski będzie zmniejszać się. W tabeli 9 przedstawiono prognozę stanu ludności  w najbliższych latach.
 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć

*Dane rzeczywiste
Źródło: GUS: Prognoza ludności na lata 2008-2035
 
   Ubytek ludności w latach 2007-2035  wyniesie ponad 2,2  miliony osób, co oznacza 5,7% ludności mniej niż w roku 2007. Prognoza jest bardziej optymistyczna niż prognoza GUS z 2003 roku,  ponieważ przewidywany jest dodatni przyrost naturalny do 2013 roku.
   Struktura ludności według wieku ulegać będzie dynamicznym zmianom (tabela 10).

Tabela 10.  Struktura ludności  Polski według  ekonomicznych grup wieku (w tys.),
         lata 2008-2035
 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
Źródło: GUS: Prognoza ludności na lata 2008-2035

   Systematycznie będzie zmniejszać się udział dzieci i młodzieży. Udział osób w wieku poprodukcyjnym 60+/65+ w roku  2008 wynosił 16,2%, w roku 2035 będzie wynosić już 26,7%, a więc wzrośnie o ponad 10%.
   Pogarsza się również współczynnik obciążenia demograficznego ludności w wieku produkcyjnym ludnością w wieku nieprodukcyjnym - odpowiednio w roku 2008  było to 55%, a w roku 2035 będzie to już 73,5%.

Kompleksowe wskaźniki oceny stanu zdrowia społeczeństwa
 
   Intensywnie rozwija się gerontologia, w ramach której wyodrębniono gerontologię eksperymentalną, medyczną i społeczną. Gerontologia eksperymentalna zajmuje się fizjologią starzenia się, medyczna obejmuje geriatrię (zwaną medycyną starości) z wyodrębnioną psychogeriatrią i geratohigienę. Gerontologia społeczna  dzielona jest na  psychologię starzenia się – gerontopsychologię i socjologię starzenia się – gerontosocjologię. Równolegle rozwijają się polityka społeczna wobec starości i ludzi starych  oraz ekonomika zdrowia.
  Sytuacja zdrowotna społeczeństwa polskiego na przestrzeni ostatnich dziesięcioleci uległa poprawie, jednak w porównaniu z większością krajów europejskich przedstawia się niekorzystnie. Najprościej można opisać ją wskaźnikiem zwanym dalszą długością oczekiwanego życia (ang. life expectancy - LE). Jest to podstawowy wskaźnik oceny stanu zdrowia społeczeństwa, będący wypadkową wielu czynników, skupiający informacje o stanie zdrowia całej populacji, jakości opieki zdrowotnej oraz warunków życia społeczności.
   Oczekiwana długość życia obliczana w momencie urodzenia jest liczbą lat, jakie może przeżyć noworodek przy założeniu, że istniejący trend umieralności pozostanie niezmieniony w okresie jego całego życia. Oczekiwaną długość życia można obliczyć dla każdego wieku. Mówi ona o średniej liczbie lat, jaką w danych warunkach umieralności ma do przeżycia osoba z danej populacji, będąca w wieku x ukończonych lat.
   Główny Urząd Statystyczny opracowuje tablice trwania życia.  Zawarte w nich wskaźniki należy odczytywać jako przeliczone na hipotetyczną grupę liczącą 100 tysięcy osób przy założeniu, że w okresie ich życia ryzyko zgonu jest identyczne jak w badanym okresie. Między oczekiwaną długością życia dla mężczyzn i kobiet daje się zauważyć różnicę na korzyść kobiet. Według danych GUS w Polsce w roku 2007 oczekiwana długość życia w chwili urodzenia dla kobiet wyniosła 79,7 lat, o 18 lat więcej  w porównaniu do roku 1950. Oczekiwana długość życia w chwili urodzenia dla mężczyzn w roku 2007 wyniosła 70,96 lat, o niemal 15  lat więcej  w porównaniu do roku 1950 (tabela 11).
   Według danych The Word Factbook oczekiwana długość życia w chwili narodzin w Polsce wynosi aktualnie dla mężczyzn 71,65, a dla kobiet 79,85 lat.

Tabela  11. Przeciętne dalsze trwanie życia w Polsce
w latach 1950, 1960, 1980, 2007
 
^kliknij, aby powiększyć
 
Źródło: GUS: Trwanie życia w 2007 roku
 
   Od 2004 roku obserwowany jest wzrost urodzeń. Zakłada się wzrost współczynnika dzietności ogólnej oraz wydłużenie przeciętnego dalszego trwania życia (tabela 12).
 
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Źródło: GUS: Prognoza ludności na lata 2008-2035

   W związku z postępem nauk medycznych przewiduje się wydłużanie oczekiwanej długości życia, należy jednak również brać pod uwagę szereg czynników zwiększających ryzyko wystąpienia poważnych chorób i śmiertelności (m.in.: palenie tytoniu, zanieczyszczenie środowiska, epidemie, nieodpowiednia dieta, uzależnienia, stres, brak aktywności fizycznej, wypadki, a w następstwie: wzrost częstości występowania chorób cywilizacyjnych, zwłaszcza chorób układu krążenia, występowanie nowotworów, inwalidztwo, zniedołężnienie). Aby oszacować konsekwencje wymienionych czynników wprowadzony został następny wskaźnik, lepiej oddający sytuację zdrowotną społeczeństwa niż oczekiwana długość życia. Jest to wskaźnik lat życia w zdrowiu (HLYs- Healthy Life Years, oczekiwana długość życia w zdrowiu). Wskaźnik odpowiada liczbie lat, ile może osoba w określonym wieku przeżyć w dobrym zdrowiu. Do jego obliczenia używana jest metoda Sullivana. Oparta jest ona na porównaniu danych dotyczących śmiertelności z liczbą lat, jaką osiąga się zachowując w pełni sprawność. Informacja na temat sprawności uzyskiwana jest od badanej osoby, co może  być niekiedy powodem różnic między stanem obiektywnym, a subiektywną oceną badanego. Wskaźnik zalecany jest przez Komisję Europejską jako narzędzie stosowane do oceny stanu zdrowia populacji. Kraje UE różnią się między sobą zarówno oczekiwaną długością życia, jak i wskaźnikiem HLYs. Średnia oczekiwana długość życia LE dla 25 krajów unijnych w 2005 roku wynosiła dla 50-letniej kobiety – 33,5 roku, dla 50-letniego mężczyzny 28,6. Jagger i wsp. [Lancet, 2008]  porównuje liczbę lat przeżytych w dobrym zdrowiu w 25 krajach unijnych w roku 2005. Najkorzystniejsze wskaźniki mają Duńczycy –  50-letni mężczyzna może spodziewać się przeżycia 23,6 lat,  a 50-letnia kobieta – 24,1 lat w pełni sił i zdrowia. Wartości LE i HLYs  dla osób 50-letnich żyjących w wybranych krajach przedstawiono w tabeli 13.

Tabela 13. Wskaźniki oczekiwanej długości życia LE
i życia w pełni zdrowia HLYs
        dla osób 50-letnich w wybranych krajach UE  w roku 2005
 
 
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Źródło: Jagger C., Gillies C., Moscone F. i wsp.: Inequalities in healthy life years in the 25 countries of the European Union in 2005: a cross-national meta-regression analysis. Lancet 2008; 372 : 2124-2131

   Jagger porównywał i analizował  wpływ na sytuację zdrowotną takich czynników, jak: wartość produktu krajowego brutto, wysokość nakładów na opiekę nad pacjentami w wieku starszym  i jej udział w wydatkach finansowanych ze środków publicznych, zagrożenie ubóstwem w grupie osób starszych, zróżnicowanie w przychodach w danym społeczeństwie, poziom zatrudnienia w grupie wiekowej 55-64, bezrobocie trwające powyżej 12 miesięcy, średni wiek przejścia na emeryturę, udział w kształceniu ustawicznym (life long learning- kształcenie  przez całe życie), poziom edukacji.  Stan zdrowia w krajach Unii Europejskiej jest bardzo zróżnicowany, wprowadzenie zmian, zwłaszcza w przypadku krajów, które zostały niedawno włączone w strukturę unijną,  wymaga odrębnych rozwiązań i strategii .
   Zgodnie z definicją Lalonda zdrowie „jest wynikiem działania czynników związanych z dziedziczeniem genetycznym, środowiskiem, stylem życia i opieką medyczną”. W celu oceny sytuacji zdrowotnej musiały powstać kompleksowe wskaźniki uwzględniające poszczególne czynniki mające wpływ na stan zdrowia ludności.
   Raport o Rozwoju Społecznym publikowany corocznie przez Program Narodów Zjednoczonych ds. Rozwoju [United Nations Development Program UNDP] zawiera m.in. :
•    Wskaźnik Rozwoju Społecznego -  HDI – Human Development Index,
•    Wskaźnik Ubóstwa Społecznego – HPI – Human Povert Index.
   Wskaźnik HDI jest stosowany do pomiaru  osiągnięć danego kraju w zakresie rozwoju i dobrobytu ludności. Raporty o Rozwoju Społecznym stosują go w swoich ocenach od 1990 roku. Pozwala on na  porównania międzynarodowe. Jest miarą opartą na danych obejmujących trzy podstawowe sfery życia: zdrowia, edukacji i dochodu. Sfera zdrowia jest oceniana poprzez wskaźnik oczekiwanego dalszego trwania życia. Sfera edukacji oceniana jest poprzez poziom osiągnięć edukacyjnych społeczeństwa obejmujący wskaźnik umiejętności czytania i pisania ze zrozumieniem (tzw. wskaźnik alfabetyzacji, obejmujący odsetek osób potrafiących czytać i pisać  w wieku lat 15 i więcej) oraz  wskaźnik skolaryzacji (odsetek osób objętych formalną edukacją, dla wszystkich poziomów nauczania). Sferę dochodu określa produkt krajowy brutto (PKB) w USD, przypadający na jednego mieszkańca, liczony według parytetu siły nabywczej waluty (PPP USD). Składowe rzutują w jednakowym stopniu na wartość HDI, jego wartość maksymalnie wynosi jeden. Na podstawie HDI można określić poziom społecznego rozwoju kraju w stosunku do innych krajów, w danym momencie bądź w dłuższym okresie czasu.
   Polska sytuuje się wśród krajów wysoko rozwiniętych (dla krajów wysoko rozwiniętych HDI>0,8; dla słabo rozwiniętych HDI<0,5). Ocena przeprowadzona w 2003 roku przez UNDP (United Nations Development Program) objęła 175 krajów.  HDI dla Polski było równe 0,841, co dało nam 35 miejsce. Pierwsze miejsce zajęła Norwegia (HDI 0.944), ostatnie Sierra Leone (HDI 0,255). W roku 2006 w rankingu 179 krajów Polska zajęła 39 miejsce (HDI 0,875), pierwsze miejsce zajęła Islandia (HDI 0,968), ostatnie znów Sierra Leone (HDI 0,329). W tabeli 14 przedstawiono HDI  i jego poszczególne składowe dla wybranych krajów w 2006 roku.
 
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Źródło: http://hdrstats.undp.org/2008/countries
 
   HDI pozwala na pełniejszą ocenę poziomu rozwoju niż PKB lub inne miary ekonomiczne. W oparciu o podobne zasady skonstruowany jest Wskaźnik Ubóstwa Społecznego. HPI,  wprowadzony w 1997 roku, obliczany jest  na podstawie wskaźników cząstkowych obejmujących minimum zdrowotne, edukacyjne oraz minimum warunków materialnych.

Podsumowanie

   Całościowa ocena problemów wieku starszego uwzględniać musi zaawansowanie i przebieg procesu starzenia, warunki życiowe i rodzinne, problemy społeczne i psychologiczne, potrzeby subiektywne. Osiągnięcie przez ludzi starszych poczucia bezpieczeństwa, zapewnienie im właściwego dostępu do świadczeń zdrowotnych, poszanowanie ich godności osobistej, stworzenie możliwości aktywnego uczestnictwa w życiu społecznym, gospodarczym i kulturalnym wymaga wprowadzenia wielu innowacyjnych rozwiązań systemowych  i  prawno-administracyjnych. Określenie „być starym” nabiera nowego wymiaru. Nasza epoka kulturowa musi zaakceptować  dokonującą się rewolucję demograficzną i nowe problemy dotyczące szeroko pojętej egzystencji ludzi starych. Punktem wyjścia do zrozumienia człowieka starego jest akceptacja nieuchronności zmian w naszym życiu dokonujących się w następstwie starzenia się populacyjnego.

dr n. farm. Urszula Kurczewska,
dr n. farm. Magdalena Jasińska
prof. dr hab. n. farm. Daria Orszulak-Michalak
Zakład Biofarmacji Wydziału Farmaceutycznego
Uniwersytetu Medycznego w Łodzi

Piśmiennictwo
1.    Opinia Komitetu Regionów w sprawie Demograficzna przyszłość Europy -  Dziennik Urzędowy C 197, 24/08/2007 P.0001-0006
2.    Krajowy Program „Zabezpieczenie Społeczne i Integracja Społeczna na lata 2008-2010”-
Ministerstwo Pracy i Polityki Społecznej, Warszawa, grudzień 2008
3.    Grodzicki T., Kocemba J., Skalska A.: Geriatria z elementami gerontologii ogólnej.
      Gdańsk Via Medica, 2006
4.   Rosset E.: Ludzie starzy. Studium demograficzne. PWE, Warszawa,1967
5.    http://www.un.org/ageing/popageing_demo5.html
6.    Woźniak-Hasik Z.: Trendy demograficzne dotyczące wieku w UE. Materiały szkoleniowe. Dział Programów Zdrowotnych i Promocji Zdrowia . Mazowieckie Centrum Zdrowia Publicznego, Warszawa, wrzesień 2007
7.    Rutkowska L. (opr. GUS): Trwanie życia w 2007 roku. Zakład Wydawnictw Statystycznych, Warszawa, 2008
8.    Rocznik demograficzny GUS 2008
9.    http://www.un.org.pl
10.    Komisja Wspólnot Europejskich. Komunikat Komisji: Demograficzna przyszłość Europy – przekształcić wyzwania w nowe możliwości. Bruksela, 12.10. 2006
11.    Commission of the European Communities: Demography Report 2008. Meeting Social Needs in an Ageing Society, Brussels SEC (2008) 2911
12.    Uwarunkowania realizacji programu badawczo-rozwojowego Ambient Assisted Living w Polsce – komfortowe funkcjonowanie osób starszych w społeczeństwie informacyjnym. Ekspertyza. Warszawa, grudzień 2007
13.    Gębska-Kuczerowska A., Miller M.: Sytuacja zdrowotna ludzi powyżej 65 roku życia w Polsce. Zdrowie Publiczne 2006; 116 (1): 135-137
14.    www.stat.gov.pl prognoza ludności na lata 2008-2035, czerwiec 2008
15.    Polak A., Porzych K., Kędziora-Kornatowska K. i in.: Poznawczy i praktyczny wymiar
 gerontologii. Gerontologia Polska 2007, 15: 51-53
16.    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/PL.html
17.    Sullivan D.F.: A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, Vol. 86, April 1971, pp. 347-354
18.    Jagger C., Gillies C., Moscone F. i wsp.: Inequalities in healthy life years in the 25 countries of the European Union in 2005: a cross-national meta-regression analysis. Lancet 2008; 372: 2124-2131
19.     http://hdrstats.undp.org/2008/countries
 
 
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